UNIVERSITY-INDUSTRY COLLABORATION AS A DETERMINANT OF EMPLOYMENT AND JOB CREATION: ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM KAZAKHSTAN
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University–industry collaboration (UIC) is widely regarded as a critical channel for knowledge transfer, research commercialization, and skilled workforce development. However, empirical evidence on its effects on employment and inclusive economic growth remains fragmented and largely indirect, and in Kazakhstan, systematic quantitative research linking UIC intensity to labour-market dynamics is virtually absent. This study investigates the influence of joint university–industry innovative projects on the national unemployment rate, accounting for lag effects and macroeconomic controls. The analysis employs annual time-series data for 2003–2024 sourced from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan and the National Institute of Intellectual Property "QazPatent," estimating OLS regressions with Newey–West robust standard errors across baseline, one-year-lag, and two-year-lag specifications, with real GDP, patents, and gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GDERD) as controls. The results reveal a statistically significant negative association between UIC intensity and Unemployment across all models, with coefficients of −0.00072 (p = 0.023), −0.00124 (p = 0.018), and −0.00135 (p = 0.029), respectively; the one-year-lag ModelModel achieves the best fit (R² = 0.950) and implies that 100 additional projects reduce Unemployment by 0.124 percentage points. Patent activity exerts a comparably persistent negative effect, while R&D investment (GDERD) is positive and significant only in the short run. Diagnostics confirm no problematic multicollinearity (VIF < 5) and homoskedastic residuals. The findings suggest that UIC is an independent determinant of employment whose effect remains robust after controlling for macroeconomic factors and is strongest with a one-year delay, reflecting the inertial, time-dependent nature of the relationship between innovative collaboration and job creation in Kazakhstan.
JEL Classification Codes: J21, J24, I23, C33.
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