Development and Terrorism in Nigeria: Co-Integration and Causality Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors
Keywords:
Terrorism, Economic Deprivation, Cointegration, Causality, Nigeria.
Abstract
This paper is a cointegration and causality analysis of macroeconomic factors and terrorism in Nigeria using time series data spanning between 1970 and 2016. The stochastic characteristics of each time series was examined using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The result reveals that LOG(GOVX), LOG(INTR), POLX, DLOG(GDPC) and DLOG(OPEN) were in line with the apriori expectation. With this development, some recommendations were made amongst which are that trade openness rate should be all time kept at peak benchmark by adopting tight trade openness while strategic macroeconomic policies should be instituted in order to encourage domestic private investment to enhance the growth of the economy. Nigerian political system has to be stabilized and the government should step up its intelligence gathering capacity as well as training security agents to forcefully combat terrorist group.
References
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Cukierman, A. (2004). Comment on: Macroeconomic Consequences of Terror: Theory and the case of Israel. Journal of Monetary Economics, (51), 1003–1006.
De Fiore, F., and Liu, Z. (2002),Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules. European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No. 173.Retrieved fromhttp://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp173.pdf
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EIU. (2008). Economist Intelligence Unit Country Profile on Nigeria,.http://www.refworld.org/pdfid/493e3bb12.pdf
Elbakidze, L., and Jin, Y. (2007). Socio-economic Antecedents of Transnational Terrorism: Exploring the Correlation.Available online: http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/689homeland/documents/terrorpaper.pdf
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Krueger, A.B., and Maleckova, J. (2003). Education, Poverty, Political Violence and Terrorism: Is there a Causal Connection? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 119-144.
Li, Q. (2005). Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents?Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(2), 278-297.
Li, Q., and Schaub, D. (2004). Economic Globalization and Transnational Terrorism: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2), 230-258.
Manson, N., Oguijiuba,O., and Adeola, A. (2004).The Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Poverty in Nigeria: Microsimulations in a CGE model. A Proposal for the Poverty and Economic Policy(PEP) Research Network.
Naij(2013).Nigeria's Anti-Terror War Gulped N372 Billion in 2012 – Report. Available online: http://news.naij.com/34638.html. Accessed on 2nd , May, 2016.
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) (2005). Nigerian Statistics.Available online: http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/pages/download/71. Accessed on 23rd , March, 2016.
Nigerian Finder (n.d.). Economic Development in Nigeria. http://nigerianfinder.com/economic-development-in-nigeria/
Nigerians Report (2011). Islamic Terrorists Attacking Christians on Christmas Day in Nigeria.Available online: http://www.nigeriansreport.com/2011/12/islamic-terrorists-attacking-christians.html#sthash.28cm4rWa.dpuf. Accessed on 4th , April, 2016.
Okonkwo, R. O., and Enem, F. O. Combating crime and terrorism using data mining techniques.Nigeria Computer Society (NCS): 10th International Conference – july 25-29, 2011. Available online: http://www.ncs.org.ng/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/ITePED2011-Paper10.pdf. Accessed on 23rd , March, 2016.
Omojimite, B. U. (2012).Public Education and Defence Spending in Nigeria: Implications for Economic Growth. Journal of Educational and Social Research, 2 (1),59-72
Onuoha, F. C. (2013). Jama'atuAnsarulMusilimina Fi Biladis Sudan: Nigeria’s Evolving Terrorist Group. Report Aljazeeral Centre for Studies.Available online: http://studies.aljazeera.net/ResourceGallery/media/Documents/2013/3/14/2013314103734423734Nigerias%20Evolving%20Terrorist%20Group.pdf. Accessed on 23rd , March, 2016.
Richardson,C. (2011).Relative Deprivation Theory in Terrorism: A Study of Higher Education and Unemployment as Predictors of Terrorism.politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4600/Clare_Richardson_terrorism.pdf
Sageman, M. (2008).Leaderless Jihad: Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Sanusi, J. O. (2002).Central Bank and the Macroeconomic Environment in Nigeria. Being a lecture delivered to participants of the senior executive course no. 24 of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), Kuru.Available online: http://www.cenbank.org/OUT/SPEECHES/2002/GOVADD-19AAUG.PDF. Accessed on 3rd , July, 2016.
Sen, A. (2001). Development as Freedom (2nd ed.). Oxford New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780192893307.
Simatele, M.C.H. (2003). Financial Sector Reform and Monetary Policy in Zambia. Ph.D Dissertation. Economic Studies, Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Gotebora University.
Tessler, M., and Michael, D. H. R. (2007).What Leads Some Ordinary Arab Men and Women to Approve of Terrorist Attacks Against the United States?Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51(2), 305-328.
Trading Economics (2013).Nigeria GDP Growth Rate. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth
World Bank(1996). Nigeria:Poverty in the Midst of Plenty: The Challenge of Growth with Inclusion.Available online: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTPOVERTY/EXTPA/0,,contentMDK:20204610~menuPK:435735~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:430367~isCURL:Y,00.html. Accessed on 23rd , March, 2016.
Adebiyi, M. A.(2006). Education-Economic Growth Paradox in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Model Retrieved from http://ssrn.com/abstract=876244.
Adebiyi, M.A., and Oladele, O. (2005). Public Education Expenditures and Defence Spending in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, http://www.saga.cornell.edu/saga/educonf/ade.Assessed August 12, 2011.
Adrangi, B., and Allender, M. (1998).Budget Deficits and Stock Prices: International evidence. Journal of Economics,22 (2-3),57-66.
Ajayi, A.I. (2012).Boko Haram and Terrorism in Nigeria: Exploratory and Explanatory Notes.Global Advanced Research Journal of History, Political Science and International Relations, 1(5),103-107.
Alesina, A., Ozler,S., Roubini, N., and Swagel, P. (1996).Political Instability and Economic Growth.Journal of Economic Growth, 1(1),189-211.
Berrebi, C. (2003). Evidence About the Link Between Education, Poverty and Terrorism Among Palestinians, Working Papers 856, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.
Blomberg, S. B., and Hess, G. D. (2008).From (no) Butter to Guns? Understanding the Economic Role in Transnational Terrorism. Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness.Ed. Philip Keefer and Norman Loayza. New York: Cambridge UP, pp, 83-115.
Blomberg, B. S., Hess, G. D., and Weerapana, A. (2004).Economic Conditions and Terrorism.European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2),463-478.
CBN Annual Reports and Statement of Accounts (various years).
CBN Statistical Bulletin vol. 17, December 2006. http://www.cenbank.org/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/STATBULLETIN/RD/2008/STABULL-2006.PDF
Chinwokwu, E. C. (2012). History and Dynamics of Terrorism in Nigeria: Socio-political Dimension.International Journal of Innovative Research and Development,1(11), 419- 446
Cukierman, A. (2004). Comment on: Macroeconomic Consequences of Terror: Theory and the case of Israel. Journal of Monetary Economics, (51), 1003–1006.
De Fiore, F., and Liu, Z. (2002),Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules. European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No. 173.Retrieved fromhttp://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp173.pdf
Economic Online (2017). Economic Development.http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Economic_development.html
Ehrlich, P.R., and Jianguo, L. (2002).Some Roots of Terrorism.Population and Environment , 24(2), 183-92.
EIU. (2008). Economist Intelligence Unit Country Profile on Nigeria,.http://www.refworld.org/pdfid/493e3bb12.pdf
Elbakidze, L., and Jin, Y. (2007). Socio-economic Antecedents of Transnational Terrorism: Exploring the Correlation.Available online: http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/689homeland/documents/terrorpaper.pdf
Forest, J.J.F. (2012). Confronting the Terrorism of Boko Haram in Nigeria. JSOU Report 12-5. Available online: http://cco.dodlive.mil/files/2012/09/Boko_Haram_JSOU-Report-2012.pdf. Accessed on 2nd , May, 2016.
Gambrell, J. (2011). Muslim sect’s attacks kill 39 in Nigeria: Catholic Church bombed just after Christmas Mass. The Columbus Dispatch.Available online:http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/national_world/2011/12/26/muslim-sects-attacks-kill-39-in-nigeria.html.Accessed on 2nd , May, 2016.
Goldman, E. (1978).The Psychology of Political Violence. In the Terrorism Reader, edited by Walter Laqueur, 193-98. New York: New American Library.
Gurr, T. R.(1970).Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Center of International Studies, Princeton UP.
Hoffman, B. (2006). Inside Terrorism. Third Ed. New York: Columbia University Press.
IndianVision (2012). Indian killed in a Nigerian Terror Attack.Available online: http://www.indiavision.com/news/article/international/271520/. Accessed on 2nd , May, 2016.
International Crisis Group reports (ICG)(2006). Nigeria: Want in the Midst of Plenty. Africa Report No 113, Available online:www.crisisgroup.org.Accessed on 2nd , May, 2016
Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood Based Inferences in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford University Press. Oxford.
Kasa, K. (1992). Common Stochastic Trends in International Markets.Journal of Monetary Economics., 29(1), 95 – 124.
Krueger, A.B., and Maleckova, J. (2003). Education, Poverty, Political Violence and Terrorism: Is there a Causal Connection? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 119-144.
Li, Q. (2005). Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents?Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(2), 278-297.
Li, Q., and Schaub, D. (2004). Economic Globalization and Transnational Terrorism: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2), 230-258.
Manson, N., Oguijiuba,O., and Adeola, A. (2004).The Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Poverty in Nigeria: Microsimulations in a CGE model. A Proposal for the Poverty and Economic Policy(PEP) Research Network.
Naij(2013).Nigeria's Anti-Terror War Gulped N372 Billion in 2012 – Report. Available online: http://news.naij.com/34638.html. Accessed on 2nd , May, 2016.
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) (2005). Nigerian Statistics.Available online: http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/pages/download/71. Accessed on 23rd , March, 2016.
Nigerian Finder (n.d.). Economic Development in Nigeria. http://nigerianfinder.com/economic-development-in-nigeria/
Nigerians Report (2011). Islamic Terrorists Attacking Christians on Christmas Day in Nigeria.Available online: http://www.nigeriansreport.com/2011/12/islamic-terrorists-attacking-christians.html#sthash.28cm4rWa.dpuf. Accessed on 4th , April, 2016.
Okonkwo, R. O., and Enem, F. O. Combating crime and terrorism using data mining techniques.Nigeria Computer Society (NCS): 10th International Conference – july 25-29, 2011. Available online: http://www.ncs.org.ng/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/ITePED2011-Paper10.pdf. Accessed on 23rd , March, 2016.
Omojimite, B. U. (2012).Public Education and Defence Spending in Nigeria: Implications for Economic Growth. Journal of Educational and Social Research, 2 (1),59-72
Onuoha, F. C. (2013). Jama'atuAnsarulMusilimina Fi Biladis Sudan: Nigeria’s Evolving Terrorist Group. Report Aljazeeral Centre for Studies.Available online: http://studies.aljazeera.net/ResourceGallery/media/Documents/2013/3/14/2013314103734423734Nigerias%20Evolving%20Terrorist%20Group.pdf. Accessed on 23rd , March, 2016.
Richardson,C. (2011).Relative Deprivation Theory in Terrorism: A Study of Higher Education and Unemployment as Predictors of Terrorism.politics.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/4600/Clare_Richardson_terrorism.pdf
Sageman, M. (2008).Leaderless Jihad: Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Sanusi, J. O. (2002).Central Bank and the Macroeconomic Environment in Nigeria. Being a lecture delivered to participants of the senior executive course no. 24 of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), Kuru.Available online: http://www.cenbank.org/OUT/SPEECHES/2002/GOVADD-19AAUG.PDF. Accessed on 3rd , July, 2016.
Sen, A. (2001). Development as Freedom (2nd ed.). Oxford New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780192893307.
Simatele, M.C.H. (2003). Financial Sector Reform and Monetary Policy in Zambia. Ph.D Dissertation. Economic Studies, Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Gotebora University.
Tessler, M., and Michael, D. H. R. (2007).What Leads Some Ordinary Arab Men and Women to Approve of Terrorist Attacks Against the United States?Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51(2), 305-328.
Trading Economics (2013).Nigeria GDP Growth Rate. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth
World Bank(1996). Nigeria:Poverty in the Midst of Plenty: The Challenge of Growth with Inclusion.Available online: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTPOVERTY/EXTPA/0,,contentMDK:20204610~menuPK:435735~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:430367~isCURL:Y,00.html. Accessed on 23rd , March, 2016.
Published
2018-01-27
How to Cite
Okon, E. O. (2018). Development and Terrorism in Nigeria: Co-Integration and Causality Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors. Indian Journal of Finance and Banking, 2(1), 1-33. https://doi.org/10.46281/ijfb.v2i1.90
Section
Regular Research Article/ Short Communication Article
Copyright (c) 2018 Emmanuel O. Okon
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
