Development and Terrorism in Nigeria: Co-Integration and Causality Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors

Emmanuel O. Okon


This paper is a cointegration and causality analysis of macroeconomic factors and terrorism in Nigeria using time series data spanning between 1970 and 2016. The stochastic characteristics of each time series was examined using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The result reveals that LOG(GOVX), LOG(INTR), POLX, DLOG(GDPC) and DLOG(OPEN) were in line with the apriori expectation. With this development, some recommendations were made amongst which are that trade openness rate should be all time kept at peak benchmark by adopting tight trade openness while strategic macroeconomic policies should be instituted in order to encourage domestic private investment to enhance the growth of the economy. Nigerian political system has to be stabilized and the government should step up its intelligence gathering capacity as well as training security agents to forcefully combat terrorist group.

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Copyright (c) 2018 Emmanuel O. Okon

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